There are just two more games left of NFL prop bets before betting on the Super Bowl LIV. Let’s make them count. The Green Bay Packers had problems all over the field when they played the San Francisco 49ers back in Week 12. All NFL prop bets and odds are courtesy of FanDuel and are subject to change.
|Date||Sunday, Jan. 19|
|Time||6:40 p.m. ET|
|How to watch||FOX|
|Point spread||SF: -7.5, over/under 46.5 points|
Steven Inman’s NFC Championship Game NFL prop bets and predictions
The Packers were pummeled by the 49ers in Week 12, 37-8. It was probably quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ worst game as a pro, throwing for just 104 passing yards. That’s his lowest total in any NFL game where he had at least 25 passing attempts.
The oddsmakers haven’t forgotten about Rodgers’ dismal performance in San Francisco, as his over/under for passing yards is actually smaller than 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (246.5).
Rodgers has not had a big passing game since Week 7 against the Oakland Raiders. I would consider the NFL prop bet of Aaron Rodgers under 238.5 passing yards at -118.
Including last week’s NFC Divisional Round matchup, Rodgers has been under 250 passing yards in eight of his last nine games. Now he’s facing a 49ers team that finished No. 1 in fewest passing yards allowed per game (169.2).
I think it would be a surprise if Rodgers was as bad as he was in Week 12, but considering he hasn’t had a big passing game since October, I wouldn’t count on him on the road against this elite 49ers defense.
I think with the 49ers’ vaunted pass rush, Rodgers could be scrambling for his life on Sunday. That is why I’m looking at the NFL prop bet of Rodgers over 12.5 rushing yards at -112. Rodgers has been over 12.5 rushing yards in five of his last seven games. To keep plays alive, Rodgers may have to scramble around the pocket and pick up key first downs on his own.
The 49ers on offense rely heavily on their run game, where the three-headed monster of Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida have been superb.
The problem for NFL prop bet purposes is we have no idea which of the three will get a majority of the carries each week. If I was going to pick one to place a small NFL prop bets wager on, it would be Mostert.
Mostert is -112 to have over 49.5 rushing yards in the NFC Championship game. The running back has had over 49.5 rushing yards in each of his last six games. In all six games he has had double-digit carries, so while this is still a timeshare backfield, Mostert seems to have some kind of guaranteed role.
Mostert is also dealing with a calf injury but he is probable to play Sunday.I wouldn’t break the bank with this NFL prop bet.
My last of the NFL prop bets for the NFC Championship game is tight end George Kittle over 75.5 receiving yards at -108.
Kittle torched the Packers for six catches, 129 receiving yards and a touchdown in their last meeting. Kittle had a monster season and I question whether the Packers have the defensive personnel to cover him.
Kittle was over 75.5 receiving yards in each of his last three regular season games.
It’s just hard to see the Packers taking this one after what we saw in their last matchup on Nov. 24. Yes, both of these teams have gone 14-3 (including the postseason) but these teams don’t appear to be evenly matched.
Even FanDuel doesn’t think the Packers have much of a chance, as they are +700 to win Super Bowl LIV compared to the 49ers at +155.
Check out the best NFL betting sites ahead of the Super Bowl.
The game should come down to the 49ers’ vaunted pass defense against the Packers offensive line. If the Packers’ o-line can give Rodgers time in the pocket, they have a chance.
Packers vs. 49ers NFC Championship predictions: 49ers (-7.5), over 46.5 points
Chris Altruda’s NFC Championship Game NFL prop bets and predictions (RotoGrinders sports betting analyst)
Will the third time be the charm for Aaron Rodgers, or will Jimmy Garoppolo extend San Francisco’s stunning turnaround into his team’s first Super Bowl appearance in seven years? Rodgers leads the Green Bay Packers into the NFC title game Sunday night against Garoppolo’s 49ers for a spot in Super Bowl LIV.
The 49ers claimed home-field advantage for this game by thrashing the Packers, 37-8, at home in Week 12. Fred Warner had a sack-strip on Rodgers on Green Bay’s first possession, Tevin Coleman scored a touchdown on the next play, and San Francisco never looked back in racing to a 23-0 halftime lead.
San Francisco’s defense hounded Rodgers, limiting him to a season-low 104 yards and a touchdown while sacking him five times. The 49ers also stifled the Packers when it mattered, holding them to 1 for 15 on third down conversions. On offense, San Francisco’s playmakers were the difference as the 49ers had nine plays of 15 or more yards, highlighted by Jimmy Garoppolo’s 61-yard touchdown pass to George Kittle.
The expectation is this game, however, will be tighter with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line. Rodgers, who hails from Chico, California, and played collegiately at Cal, has a solid track record of keeping Green Bay competitive – not only is he 11-7 lifetime in the postseason, four of those defeats have been by six or fewer points and three came in overtime.
Rodgers, though, is 0-2 in the playoffs against San Francisco, losing in the divisional round in 2013 and the wild-card round the following postseason.
The 49ers looked impressive in reaching the conference championship game for the first time in six years, dismantling the Minnesota Vikings, 27-10, in the divisional round. San Francisco limited Minnesota to seven first downs while its bruising running game, led by Tevin Coleman as he totaled 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns, finished with 186 on the ground.
Rodgers and Davante Adams powered Green Bay to a 28-23 victory over Seattle in the other divisional round game, with the pair hooking up eight times for 160 yards and a pair of scores. Aaron Jones contributed 62 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns while the defense did well to neutralize Russell Wilson when it mattered, sacking him five times.
So without further ado, onto the NFL prop bets.
Aaron Rodgers OVER 1.5 TD passes (-102): The expectation is Green Bay will provide better pass protection for Rodgers than it did in Week 12, and the Packers will also find ways to limit the amount Adams will be matched up opposite 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman. There will likely not be big-chunk yardage plays, but sustained drives in which Rodgers’ passing acumen in the red zone – he had 16 touchdown passes and two interceptions on such plays in the regular season — will determine the success of this pick.
49ers -3 2nd quarter (-110): San Francisco outscored Green Bay 13-0 in the second quarter of their Week 12 matchup, which is also a microcosm of how the teams performed in those 15 minutes in their respective roles. The 49ers outscored opponents 84-44 at home in the second quarter in their nine games, while the Packers have been outscored 53-22 on the road in that period. Additionally, Green Bay has not scored a second-quarter touchdown on the road since their season-opening win at Chicago in Week 1.
Davante Adams anytime TD (+160): Though Adams is coming off the best playoff game of his career, San Francisco’s pass rush makes his over/under of 84.5 yards a challenging play – it shortens the time to throw and the 49ers held him to 43 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions in their earlier matchup. All seven of his touchdown catches, including the playoffs, have come in his last seven games, which makes the anytime touchdown pick more appealing than a play on his yards.
Tevin Coleman OVER 38.5 rushing yards (-112): There is some risk to this pick given how the 49ers like to ride the hot hand running the ball. Coleman, though, should at least get the benefit of the doubt from his performance against Minnesota to accumulate enough carries early to be in good position to clear this number in the second half.
Aaron Rodgers OVER 12.5 rushing yards (-112): This is another expectation in relation to the Packers offering better pass protection in the form of designed half rollouts for Rodgers. That provides potential running lanes if plays break down, and while Rodgers is not exceptionally fast, he is more than capable of scrambling for positive yards. He had 14 yards against the Seahawks last weekend and has totaled 13 or more on seven occasions overall this season – including 13 versus the 49ers.