All Tom Brady prop bets and Tom Brady odds are courtesy of PointsBet.
We’re going to find out this upcoming season whether Brady took a big step back last year or if it a lack of offensive weapons around him.
Weapons won’t be an excuse after joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brady now has a ton of offensive talent around him, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard.
A great offensive coach in Bruce Arians should help get the most out of Brady at 43 years old as well.
Tom Brady prop bets: over-under 4500.5 passing yards (-115)
Tom Brady must be motivated to show to the world he can win without head coach Bill Belichick.
Now Brady possesses arguably his best wide receiver core in at least a decade. Brady should be able to air it out in Tampa.
The offensive battles we will see with Brady vs. Drew Brees and Brady vs. Matt Ryan multiple times each should certainly produce excellent passing numbers.
With that said, 4500.5 is such a large number for the first of our Tom Brady prop bets. This is a number Brady has only eclipsed five times in 20 NFL seasons.
It’s pretty clear to everyone paying attention that the Tampa Bay offense was more willing to air it out than the New England Patriots were last year. Jameis Winston threw for an NFL-best 5,109 passing yards in 2019 under Bruce Arians.
Winston threw for the first ever 30 touchdown-30 interception season and yet Arians continued to let him throw the football all over the field despite the turnovers. If Arians was willing to ride Winston heavily, we certainly shouldn’t worry about Brady not getting enough passing attempts.
Also, remember how durable Brady has been. Brady has started all 16 regular season games in 10 of the last 11 seasons.
NFL predictions: Tom Brady throws over 4500.5 passing yards (-115)
Tom Brady prop bets: over-under 33.5 passing touchdowns (-115)
While I believe Brady is going to have a strong year despite his advanced age, I’m not buying into over 33.5 passing touchdowns.
For one, Brady has achieved this just five times in 20 seasons and just once since 2011. Plus, the Buccaneers found success handing the ball to Ronald Jones last season. The second-year running back ran for six touchdowns in 2019.
Jones seemed to find his footing at the end of the year, where he rushed 25 times for 183 rushing yards.
If we go back to how Winston fared in this offense once again, he never threw for over 33 touchdowns in any of his five NFL seasons with the Buccaneers.
While I think betting on Brady to have over 4500.5 is a solid bet, 34 or more passing touchdowns seems risky.
Only one quarterback threw for 34 or more touchdowns last season, MVP Lamar Jackson. Brady should have a solid season in this high-powered offense but asking the soon-to-be 43-year-old to play like an MVP may be asking too much.
NFL predictions: Tom Brady under 33.5 passing touchdowns (-115)
Tom Brady prop bets: over 5000 passing yards (+500)
Brady has thrown for over 5000 yards just once in his NFL career. The future first-ballot Hall of Famer will be 43 years old before next season begins and asking him to have an all-time season at his age seems like asking too much.
NFL predictions: Tom Brady will not throw over 5000 passing yards.
Tom Brady prop bets: over 40 passing touchdowns (+700)
We didn’t think Brady would eclipse 33.5 touchdowns so 40 is out of the question with our Tom Brady prop bets.
Brady should help aid Tampa Bay’s dynamic wide receivers in having career seasons. Chris Godwin broke out last season in his third professional year and he could be even better under Brady’s guidance.
I would consider the NFL prop bet of Chris Godwin over 1300.5 receiving yards this upcoming season at -115.
Godwin already eclipsed 1300 receiving yards in 2019. Despite his big season, teams can’t afford to double him more with Mike Evans also on the field. Godwin should continue his ascent as one of the best receivers in football.
If you feel extra confident in Godwin’s ascension, consider the NFL prop bet of Godwin over 1500 receiving yards at +325.
NFL predictions: Tom Brady will not throw over 40 passing touchdowns, Chris Godwin over 1300.5 receiving yards (-115)